I don’t think it will have any long term effects and the relative market share for Apple and Google app stores will remain constant. For example, Apple’s desktop share has been at about 5% desktop for decades.
I’d much rather be in Android’s situation. I’d rather find a way to monetize all those users. Test marketing small groups until I found what worked. Far more powerful if done carefully while continuing to develop customer loyalty. At least that what marketers are taught. How correct it is…who knows. But given a choice, I’ll take the higher number of users any day.
I think most business experts would say Apple is in a better position. It’s usually preferable to go after a high profit market niche. Nobody wants to be in a commodity market. Apple also has higher brand loyalty, but they probably spend more per customer too. Google spends very little on customer service. It’d be naive of Google to think they can simply raise prices in the future and expect customers to remain loyal. Napster tried that.
Also, Apple not only has more margin, but higher overall profit, so they’re the ones with more wiggle room to test products, try new markets, etc.